The Likely America’s Waterloo in Middle East & Indian Ocean. Imperial Overstretch and Energy Colonialism in the Fog of War
by Darini Rajasingham-Senanayake
The writer, Dr. Darini Rajasingham-Senanayake, is a Social and Medical Anthropologist, based in Colombo, Sri Lanka. Gospa News author since 2021. Links to Gospa News articles have been added by our Editorial Staff
PART 1. Imperial Overstretch and Energy Colonialism in the Fog of War
The United States Armada seems stranded half way around the world in the Indian Ocean whose energy trade routes it seeks to blockade to stymie Asian economies amid the fog of war. In the western reach of the vast Indian Ocean (IO), far from home bases in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, the American Armada assembled against Iran is spilling blood and treasure that the US can ill afford.
South and Southeast Asia, and China, the workshop of the world, are global growth hubs at this time. Perhaps President Trump reckons that by starving these economies of fuel and fertilizer from West Asia he may “Make America Great Again” (MAGA), and shore up the exorbitantly privileged Petrodollar? The oil backed US greenback’s global reserve currency status is under pressure given America’s whopping $39 trillion deficit, and the rise of the Chinese Petro Yuan.
Stretched thin, the US war machine is valiantly trying to blockade the Straits of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman in the Arabian Sea, all of which are part of the ancient Indian Ocean maritime Silk Route. This Silk Route of the Seas connected the supercontinent of Asia and its great civilizations for millennia- long, long before the United States came into existence in the new world.
These past and present Afro-Asian Sea Lanes of Communication (SLOC), are part of the modern Chinese Belt and Road (BRI) for global connectivity, and constitute the world’s Superhighway for energy, trade and submarine data cable routes. It was at the center of the same Indian Ocean in the Seas of Sri Lanka that a US torpedo sank the IRIS Dena, killing 84 Iranian sailors, while causing environmental damage and affecting local fisheries and tourist livelihoods in the first week of the US-Israel war on Iran.
Easter Sunday 2019 to IRIS Dena 2026: Weaponization of Religion and Geopolitics
Across maritime Asia there is a growing perception that America, an Atlantic and Pacific Ocean county, has NO right to blockade Indian Ocean sea lanes with its environment despoiling war machine, of aircraft carriers, submarines, missiles, bombs, drone warfare and other environment despoiling war toys.
Monsoon Asia’s Sea Lanes and Weather Warfare
Does Trump reckon that he may crash the ‘Asian 21st Century’ and shore up the exorbitantly privileged US Petrodollar through energy colonialism and occupation of the Maritime Silk Route? Oil grabbing, energy infrastructure destruction, and taxing global supply routes while playing war games with Middle East proxy, Israel, seem par for Trump’s course at this time.
Indian Ocean Sea Lanes of Communication (SLOC), forged and traversed by monsoon winds and rains for millennia, have been increasingly subject to geoengineering, staged climate disasters and weather warfare, a la ‘Operation Popeye’ during the Vietnam War. Operation Popeye was a Cloud seeding program to extend monsoon rains to drawn the Viet Cong fighters in mud during the American occupation of Indo-Chine.
Monsoon weather warfare as a form of hybrid economic warfare against South and Southeast Asia was evident in a series of devastating twister storms unleashed last year on Aceh, North Sumatra, Indonesia, at the Strait of Malacca Choke point and Sri Lanka, another geostrategic SLOC chokepoint, after which US Hercules planes landed in Sri Lanka. Currently, the US and UK continue the illegal neocolonial occupation of the Chagos Island with the Diego Garcia military– base due southwest of Sri Lanka at the center of the IO.
With fuel prices through the roof and blackouts in many countries, ridding the Indian Ocean of the US war machine and sending the American Armada back to the Atlantic Ocean is now a priority in Monsoon Asia.
Demilitarizing and shutting down foreign, mainly Euro-American military bases to end neocolonial occupation and looting of fisheries and sea bed mineral resources which belong to the littoral peoples of the Indian Ocean World is increasingly a security priority -to return to a modicum of Peace and Prosperity in the region.
Imperial Overreach? Oil Grabbing in Venezuela, Iran; blockading Cuba
With the US Armada treading water in the Indian Ocean to blockade Iranian ports, a Russian tanker recently bought oil to Cuba in the Caribbean Sea – off the coast of Florida.
The Socialist government of Cuba had been long sanctioned, and is now blockaded, starved of fuel and strangled by the Trump regime. Marco Rubio, Secretary of State seeks regime change in his country of ancestral origin, much as happened earlier this year in Venezuela and Iran.
Russia discreetly stated that the oil delivery to Cuba which has suffered extended blackouts was a ‘humanitarian’ gesture. The Russian tanker, Anatoly Kolodkin docked in Cuba in late March 2026, delivering approximately 730,000 barrels of crude oil to the Port of Matanzas.
Shades of American Imperial Overstretch: Has President Trump’s operation Epic Fury to oil-grab in Iran, fresh from the oil-grab in Venezuela to control global oil supply, markets and pricing to shore up the exorbitantly privileged Petrodollar come a cropper in the Indian Ocean? Meanwhile, Iran allied Yemeni Houthis (Ansarallah), have also threatened to block the Red Sea!
Trump lifted sanctions on Iranian and Russian oil earlier this month only to do a volte face, moving to blockade the Straits of Hormuz and Indian Ocean energy trade routes. Are the flip-flops and Disinformation meant to distract from attempts to take down the Asian Century, while pumping and dumping countries as much as stock and bond markets with exogenous economic oil shocks enabling Oil companies to make big profits?
Iran after all had said that the straits were open to friendly countries. The Disinformation and contradictory messaging as a maximum pressure tactic by Trump signal another broader, global agenda besides shutting down Iran’s uranium enrichment program. Control of Indian Ocean Sea Lanes to pump and dump Asian economies.
Presumably, Admirals of the American Armada would take note of these developments and history to look for an off ramp; a face saving Exit Strategy from the Indian Ocean World before Afro-Asia Unite to drive out the American Armada and restore the ‘Indian Ocean as a Zone of Peace’
During the Cold War the Indian Ocean was demarcated a ‘Zone of Peace’ to be free of Nuclear weapons and big power rivalry by the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM). The declaration of the Indian Ocean as a Zone of Peace was led by the world’s first woman Head of State, Sri Lanka’s Prime Minister Sirimavo Bandaranaike at the 1971 United Nations General Assembly. Resolution (2832) proposed by Sri Lanka, supported by Tanzania and NAM aimed to halt foreign military expansion, eliminate nuclear weapons, and remove great-power rivalries. It was formally adopted on December 1971, to create a secure maritime region.
The history and memory of the NAM initiative to declare the ‘Indian Ocean a Zone of Peace’ have not died in Asia or the Indian Ocean World despite invention of the “Indo-Pacific” to Partition, Divide and Rule the Indian Ocean World by US Central Intelligence Agency linked security think tanks and their research collies in Delhi.
It’s the Petrodollar, Stupid!
Ironically, President Trump claimed that the US blockade of the Straits of Hormuz that runs in Iran’s territorial waters was done to un-block it.
Iran however, has made it clear that the Straits of Hormuz which carries almost 20 percent of global fuel supply are open to friends in the Asian neighborhood and the Indian Ocean World. Ships that pass through Hormuz may need to pay a Toll in Petro Yuan — rather than the exorbitantly privileged Petrodollar for safe passage.
And here lies the rub. The US dollar which is a fiat currency or paper money without intrinsic value (unlike Gold for instance), is backed by Petroleum or Oil, which is the world’s most traded commodity. It is due to the near universal demand for oil that it is sometimes referred to as “black gold”.
However, the oil-backed Petrodollar is increasingly under pressure for many reasons, particularly, the ongoing transition to renewable energy sources like solar, wind and hydro, lowering demand, as well as, the BRICS de-dollarizing and trading in national currencies. Hence, the US push to monopolize oil sources, processing infrastructure, trade routes and choke points at this time also given the huge US deficit which puts pressure on the dollar which is increasingly an unsafe haven. The IMF has warned that America’s debt to GDP ratio is unsustainable.
Having first claimed that the purpose of moving the American Armada to the IO was to prevent Iran’s nuclear enrichment program, President Trump seems to have shifted goal posts to the Straits of Hormuz and control of Indian Ocean sea lanes via war on Iran. Energy supply chain disruption and blockade would of course starve Asian economies. Was this the Endgame of President Trump’s latest war of choice–taking down the Asian 21st century to Make America Great Again? Mixed motives, none of which are particularly attractive are par for the course.
Energy Colonialism in the Fog of War: A Staged Emergency and IMF
As a recent Primer the Tri-continental Institute noted: The US-Israeli war on Iran is exposing the Oil-Dollar-Wall Street complex that binds oil, financial markets, and dollar power, with consequences that reach far beyond the region.
A pattern of energy neocolonialism is emerging at this time as the US Armada tests the waters toward establishing a new normal of control across Indian Ocean SLOC, under the guise of a “free and open Indo-Pacific”. The blockade on Iranian ports and oil shipments establishes a US presence in the IO, even as US corporations profit maximize by rerouting energy supply chains and establishing new markets in Asia and other parts of the world, particularly in geostrategic countries that it seeks to control.
Hybrid Economic War with Neocolonial Debt Bondage in the Indian Ocean
Amid the fog of war and Hormuz blockade, US oil companies sold overpriced American ‘light sweet crude’ oil and gas at exorbitant prices and transport cost to Asian countries already ensnared in Petrodollar Eurobond debt traps. If not for the blockade these countries would source cheaper energy closer home in Asia.
For instance, geostrategic Sri Lanka at the center of the Indian recently purchased American gas and oil at astronomical prices. Citizens saw a 25 percent increase overnight in gas prices. Meanwhile the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC) purchased diesel at a whopping 286$ a barrel.
Russia’s offer to supply oil and gas at lower cost was cold shouldered by the Colombo regime, which wears a mask of neutrality, being caught in a Eurobond Petrodollar debt trap and subject to IMF advice and control over the Central Bank.
Energy has become a battleground for geopolitical control through development aid, loans, and other bilateral and multilateral assistance in the geostrategic island which has a high potential for renewables – solar and hydro – which are underutilized at this time.
Sri Lanka which staged a first ever Sovereign Default into the waiting arms of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in 2022, like other Eurobond USD debt trapped countries has lost economic sovereignty and Energy policy autonomy to the Washington Twins (IMF and World Bank) at this time and now buys exorbitantly priced US sourced energy with exorbitantly privileged USD that it does not have!
Meanwhile, Trump has described BRICS and attempts of Global South countries to become energy independent, de-dollarize and conduct bi-lateral trade in local currencies as an attack on the Petrodollar. Colombo’s political and business elites unable think beyond US threats continue to tango to the tunes of Washington and its Consensus.
IMF Reforms and Energy Corruption Rackets: The New Normal?
Energy Sector corruption and price gouging in the fog of war has become the new normal thanks also to IMF reforms of the Energy Sector, which fragmented the national electricity grid and infrastructure, while decimating oversight mechanisms. The substandard coal scandal in the headlines is but the tip of the iceberg of external networks embedded in the electricity sector which has been subject to IMF ‘reforms’ in the past 2 years.
Ironically, in the name of ‘good governance’, IMF-induced reforms have enabled unprecedented corruption rackets to thrive, while extending energy neocolonialism also as part of the green transition, now exacerbated in the fog of war and Energy Emergency.
Of course, corrupt officials at the Ceylon Electricity Board and Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC), have been also embolden by Ministers dancing to Washington’s oil sanction tunes. Just this week in Sri Lanka, the Minister of Power and Energy, Kumara Jayakody already under investigation for fertilizer and coal tender scams was finally forced to resign after the expose of the CPC purchase of diesel at $ 286 per barrel.
Was the Minister a casualty of US energy colonialism in the fog of Disinformation and War in Iran as much as IMF reforms to extend Energy colonialism in the geostrategic Indian Ocean island? Many shady energy deals like the US Gas deal pass through Dubai, Swiss and Singapore companies. Singapore, proximate to the Strait of Malacca choke point also houses a US military base, just like Dubai which is also the headquarters for Sri Lanka drug barons. Meanwhile, Malaysia and Indonesia on the Malacca Strait Choke Point were recently persuaded like Sri Lanka to sign defense corporation agreements with the US.
Finally, there are remarkable shades of the Covid-19 virus and vaccine Pandemic Emergency and global transport, trade and supply disruptions across world at this time.
The CV-19 panicdemic, global lockdown and supply chain disruption enabled massive wealth transfers from the Global South to north, Big Pharma profit maximizing with Emergency authorized mRNA injections and GAFAM Digital colonialism. Today oil companies and their stockholders are making a chilling killing on Trump’s energy markets chaos strategy.
Much like the Covid-19 chaos operation to disrupt the global economy, the current US blockade of Indian Ocean SLOC is being used to promote QR coded fuel rationing for tracking and surveilling populations for the Great Reset.
It is increasingly clear that the US Armada is testing IO waters to promote a new normal of energy colonialism to contain Asian economies and Make America Great Again (MAGA), but may need an Exit Strategy to return home soon to Atlantic and Pacific shores– before Asia Unites to evict it from the Indian Ocean World.
Donald Trump clearly overplayed his hand when he boasted that he would ‘destroy a civilization overnight’.
PART 2; America’s Waterloo, Enter China, Exit India
Time to learn some Indian Ocean World History and Geography: There is No ‘Indo-Pacific’
Did no one tell President Trump who sent shock waves around the world when he claimed that he would ‘destroy a civilization overnight’ that the Straits of Hormuz controlled and bordered by Iran is an integral part of the vast Indian Ocean energy superhighway? The Sea Silk Route of yore connected the maritime regions and heartlands of the Supercontinent of Asia for millennia – long before the United States was thought of, let along came into existence a mere 250 years ago.
Did no one tell Trump that blockading Indian Ocean sea lanes in the Asian 21st Century was a very bad idea– for everyone? Indeed, do Trump’s advisors have a grasp of Asian and Indian Ocean World history and geography? Or, are they sold on their own propaganda about a non-existent “Indo-Pacific”?
The Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea are all in the Indian Ocean and integral to the ancient and modern maritime Silk Route. Indeed, the Asia Superpower, China’s contemporary Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), for Global Connectivity and infrastructure traverses many of these ancient trade routes forged through Monsoon rains and winds, which long ago knit the regions of the Supercontinent of Asia with East Africa and the peninsular of Europe.
A New US Cold War Weaponizes Religious Diasporas in South Asia and the Indian Ocean Region
Many World Systems historians and theorists who study the long arc of history have noted that we are once again in an Asian Century. The American Century is fading fast in. Still, President Trump is putting up a valiant fight to save face and defend the exorbitantly privileged dollar by oil grabbing and controlling energy trade routes. To succeed, Trump and his Secretaries of State and War, Marco Rubio and Pete Hegeseth, would do well to learn some Asian and Indian Ocean history and geography.
Partition of the Indian Ocean World to Divide and Rule: No Indo-Pacific
Trump appears to have stumbled into an Indian Ocean World whose history and geography his advisors had little knowledge of — notwithstanding attempts by US intelligence think tanks with the collaboration of their Indian counterparts to Partition the Indian Ocean via the ‘Indo-Pacific’ neologism?
The ‘Indo-Pacific’ neologism connotes the Partition of the Indian Ocean WORLD in order to divide, rule and recolonize it at the center–with the eastern reach of the Indian Ocean yoked to the American Pacific. To this end the US has created a layered India-centered Security Architecture — the QUAD in the Eastern Indian Ocean, and 12U2 in the western Indian Ocean, of which more later.
The QUAD and I2U2 are in turn supervised and controlled by the White AUKUS (Australia-UK-US) Nuclear Submarine Club.
Together the QUAD, I2U2, and AUKUS are an elaborate security architecture not just to contain China but the Rise of Asia in the Asian Century. While China remains the focus of, Iran and other Asian Powers, including Russia in the Indian Ocean are also targets. Hence, the Janus faced behavior of India with BRICS on the one hand the US war machine on the other. India tries to run with the hare and hunt with the hounds but has lost face and betrayed the Global South which it aspires to lead.
Let us be crystal clear at this time: There ain’t no Indo-Pacific: Moreover, the United States which is in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans has No Right to bring its environment-polluting war machine to the Indian Ocean World, which belongs to littoral States of the Indian Ocean – the world’s oldest and wealthiest maritime trade system. Nor does the US have the right under the guise of its free and open Indo-Pacific neologism to control IO sea lanes and Asian economies energy shipments.
The Indian Ocean World was colonized, partitioned, divided and ruled in for three centuries by competing European maritime empires skilled in weaponizing ethno-religious identity politics. While subsequent de-colonization, independence and national liberation struggles swept Asia and Africa in the aftermath of World War 2, the Indian Ocean remained colonized and controlled; occupied by UK, France and later US military bases.
The Indian Ocean remains to be decolonized at this time. However, India has become irrelevant in the struggle of Indian Ocean countries to liberate their ocean from Euro-American occupation and exploitation.
India once partitioned by Britain and now, dubbed the BRICS spoiler, has been conspicuously silent about Trump’s excursion to oil grab in Iran and blockade in the Indian Ocean sea lanes for Energy Colonialism. No doubt Delhi is smarting given the prominence of Pakistan in Islamabad Peace negotiations.
Enter China Exit India
Modi’s India with Foreign Minister Jaishankar focused on conflicts with Northern neighbors, China and Pakistan, are widely perceived to have betrayed India’s claims to be a leader of the Global South, as well as, the legacy of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) which declared the Indian Ocean as a ‘Zone of Peace’. Rather, New Delhi has led the rush to militarize the Indian Ocean disregarding the environmental impacts of militarization particularly on impoverished littoral fisheries communities.
Simultaneously, land locked Delhi appears to have given step-motherly treatment to the interests of its Southern States – Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra and Karnataka which face the Indian Ocean.
India has prioritized security alliances with the US and its proxies in East and West Asia, and membership of QUAD (Australia, Japan, India and USA), and the I2U2 (India, Israel, UAE and USA), a US security architecture designed to Partition the Indian Ocean world, and divide and rule it.
Intent on containing China in partnership with USA, India has relinquished the interests of smaller Indian Ocean countries and her neighbourhood, giving precedence to America’s neo-imperialist security architecture in the Indian Ocean, over fisheries livelihoods and de-colonizing the Indian Ocean which is looted by distant water fishing states particularly France, Spain, Japan, EU, Taiwan, China.
Indeed, the India-US security collaboration appears to sustain Petrodollar energy colonialism and bucks attempts of BRICS and Global South countries to de-dollarize and escape the Eurobond Debt trap that is being deepened with IMF reforms of Energy Sector in countries like Sri Lanka, in turn deepening Energy Colonialism.
The question now is: Will Xi’s China, the Superpower located at the far-eastern corner of the Indian Ocean World, seemingly averse to carrying the mantle of Superpower unlike Trump’s America, intervene with other Asian civilizational powers to help the crashing, flailing, violent and dangerous US hegemon come in for a soft landing and exit the Indian Ocean with its Armada?
Remarkably, the I2U2 in the Western Indian Ocean, the QUAD to the East, and the AUKUS Nuclear Sub Club to contain the Rise of Asia and ensure Christian Zionist hegemony in the Indian Ocean World seem to be going nowhere at this time, much like BRICS with its Saffron tinted partner, Modi’s India, in the Chair?
Darini Rajasingham-Senanayake
The writer, Dr. Darini Rajasingham-Senanayake, is a Social and Medical Anthropologist, based in Colombo, Sri Lanka. Gospa News author since 2021. Links to Gospa News articles have been added by our Editorial Staff
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